It is estimated that the total demand of aluminum

It is estimated that the total demand for aluminum anode in China will be about 20million tons in 2018

the demand for carbon in aluminum anode in China will increase by about 1million tons in 2018, and the export will basically remain unchanged, roughly the same as that in 2017. It is estimated that the accuracy of the 201 experimental force must be guaranteed by the regular verification of the measurement unit recognized by the national authority. The total demand for aluminum anodes in China in eight years is about 20million tons. However, since the carbon block inventory of the electrolytic aluminum plant reached about 750000 tons by the end of 2017, the inventory level in 2018 will return to the normal level. Therefore, the actual demand in 2018 is expected to be about 19.2 million tons, slightly lower than the actual production in 2017

I. The overall outline of China's aluminum carbon in 2018

China's aluminum anode carbon demand will increase by about 1million tons in 2018, and the export will basically remain unchanged, roughly the same as that in 2017. It is estimated that the total demand for aluminum anodes in China will be about 20million tons in 2018. However, due to the increase of carbon block inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants reaching about 750000 tons by the end of 2017, the inventory level in 2018 will return to the normal level. Therefore, the actual demand in 2018 is expected to be about 19.2 million tons, slightly lower than the actual production in 2017

in 2018, China's aluminum cathode carbon block industry, due to the significant reduction of electrolytic aluminum under construction capacity compared with 2017, the demand for cathode carbon blocks will be reduced, and the total annual demand is expected to be about 300000 tons

adapting to the requirements of environmental protection will continue to be the lifeline of enterprises throughout 2018

1. The demand for carbon anodes for aluminum in 2018

it is estimated that the national electrolytic aluminum output in 2018 will increase by 6%. The output of provinces and cities such as Xinjiang and Shandong, the main producing areas of electrolytic aluminum, is estimated to be the same as that in 2017. The growth of electrolytic aluminum output in other main producing areas is expected to be as follows: Inner Mongolia increased by 500000 tons, Guangxi by 400000 tons, Yunnan by 300000 tons, Shanxi by 300000 tons, Guizhou by 200000 tons, Liaoning by 200000 tons, with a total of about 2.1 million tons. Compared with 2017, the demand for aluminum anodes in 2018 is expected to increase by about 1million tons. In terms of export, the export of aluminum anodes will not change significantly in 2018, and will remain at the level of 1million tons

combined with the new capacity of aluminum anode at the end of 2017, the new anode capacity in 2017 can fully meet the development needs of electrolytic aluminum in 2018

2. Reconstruction capacity of aluminum carbon in 2018

the aluminum anode project under construction in 2018 has a huge capacity, with a total capacity of 6.8 million tons according to incomplete statistics. New projects are still concentrated in East China (Shandong and Jiangsu), mainly in Shandong, with a total capacity of about 4million tons under construction; Followed by Southwest China (Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou), with a total of about 1.4 million tons; The situation in other provinces and cities is: 450000 tons in Inner Mongolia, 280000 tons in Shanxi, 300000 tons in Liaoning and 370000 tons in Xinjiang. These newly added projects are still dominated by commercial anodes, with a total capacity of 5.12 million tons; The self supporting anode capacity under construction totals 1.68 million tons. If calculated according to the normal construction progress, at least 3million tons of new capacity can be completed by the end of 2018, which will completely change the supply and demand situation of the aluminum anode market, and return from the seller's market to the buyer's market

3. Prospect of aluminum anode production and demand in major provinces (cities) in 2018

the anode demand of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong Province in 2018 was about 4.5 million tons; By the end of 2017, the total capacity of aluminum anode carbon blocks in Shandong Province had reached 8.6 million tons. Considering that at least 2million tons of new capacity will be built in 2018, the anode capacity in Shandong Province will reach 10.6 million tons by the end of 2018. Except that sotong development, Chenyang carbon, Aohai carbon, Wanfang carbon and other enterprises export nearly 1million tons in total, there will be 5million tons of anode carbon block surplus in Shandong Province to be sold outside the province

in 2018, the anode carbon blocks of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, such as Xinjiang Xinfa, Oriental hope, Shenhuo aluminum, Tianlong aluminum, Tianshan aluminum, will basically be self-sufficient. There is a gap in anode demand among its sub aluminum, Xinjiang Jiarun, Xinjiang Zhonghe and other enterprises; After Nanshan Group acquired Xinjiang Jiarun, anode carbon blocks were also self-produced and self-sufficient. Shenhuo carbon has a surplus of nearly 100000 tons of anode carbon blocks, and Dongfang hopes to build a new 250000 tons of carbon project. It is expected that there will be no demand gap for anode carbon blocks in Xinjiang by the end of 2018

in 2018, the production capacity of Dongfang hope electrolytic aluminum in Baotou City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was 800000 tons/year and 1.08 million tons/year, while by the end of 2018, the production capacity of Dongfang hope anode carbon block will reach 550000 tons, 600000 tons of sendu carbon and 120000 tons of aluminum carbon. These enterprises have a total anode production capacity of 1.27 million tons/year, which can meet the production demand of electrolytic aluminum in Baotou city, There is also a surplus of 300000 tons, which restricts the frequency band of the amplifier to an appropriate range; In addition, the 200000 ton electrolytic aluminum project of Datang International Renewable resources has a 100000 ton supporting anode production line. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Tongliao area is: 170000 tons/year of Tongshun aluminum, 800000 tons/year of HuoMei Hongjun, 800000 tons/year of Jinlian, 200000 tons/year of Chuangyuan metal, 100000 tons/year of Mengtai energy, with a total production capacity of 2.1 million tons, requiring a total of about 1million tons of anode carbon blocks, while the total production capacity of Tongshun carbon, huoning carbon, Hongjun carbon and other three enterprises is 600000 tons, with a gap of 400000 tons. Overall, by the end of 2018, the anode demand gap in Inner Mongolia will be only about 100000 tons, which will be significantly reduced compared with 2017

the anode demand of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Henan Province, such as Yugang Longquan, Wanji aluminum, Shenhuo Coal and electricity, Zhongfu industry, Yongdeng aluminum, is basically self-sufficient. Jiaozuo Wanfang (electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 400000 tons/year) is supported by Wandu carbon and Yingli trading company, and only the carbon demand of Linzhou aluminum (electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 200000 tons/year) needs to be purchased. More than a dozen enterprises, including Songyue carbon, Jinju industry, Jiaozuo Hengyu, Zhongkai carbon, Sanmenxia Shentong carbon, Dongfang carbon, have a total anode output of more than 1 million tons. Exposed rust prevention treatment should be sold outside the province with rust proof oil and excellent services of screws

Gansu Liancheng Aluminum, Lanzhou Aluminum and other enterprises have supporting anode production lines. Dongxing aluminum Jiayuguan base is mainly developed by sotong. Dongxing aluminum Longxi base (electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 300000 tons/year) does not have a supporting anode production line, which needs to be purchased. The 150000 ton carbon relocation project of Hualu aluminum has been completed and put into operation. In addition, there is a 100000 ton anode project under construction in Longxi, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2018. There is no gap in the anode carbon block in Gansu Province

in Qinghai Province, Chalco Qinghai Branch (electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 300000 tons/year) and Huanghe Xinye (500000 tons/year) have supporting anode production lines. Qiaotou Aluminum Power (300000 tons/year) anode is not self-sufficient, there is still a gap, and more than 70000 tons of anode carbon blocks still need to be purchased. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises such as Western hydropower (400000 tons/year), Xinheng aluminum (180000 tons/year), Baihe aluminum (200000 tons/year) do not have complete anode supporting projects, and the 300000 ton carbon project of the original Yellow River renewable aluminum industry is being restarted. It is estimated that by the end of 2018, the whole Qinghai Province will need to purchase about 300000 tons of anode blocks, which will further reduce the demand gap of carbon blocks compared with 2017

Southwest China is also the main producing area of electrolytic aluminum in China. In 2018, the new capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan Province basically has supporting carbon projects, and the gap of anode carbon block is not obvious; Electrolytic aluminum in Guizhou Province has a new output of 200000 tons, and basically all belong to China aluminum series projects, with supporting carbon projects under construction, and there is no anode gap; The production of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum carbon in Sichuan Province has basically not changed, and the supply and demand in the province is basically balanced. Electrolytic aluminum production and anode supply and demand in Chongqing are also roughly balanced

in 2018, electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi Province is expected to have a new output of 400000 tons. Without considering the completion of other anode projects under construction, the new anode output of strong carbon and top 100 carbon enterprises alone is about 300000 tons, so there is no anode gap in Guangxi, and the surplus is sold to Yunnan and other places

4. Supply and demand of main raw and auxiliary materials of aluminum anodes in 2018

the supply of petroleum coke, the main raw and auxiliary materials of aluminum anodes in China, has not changed much in 2018, and there will be no serious shortage of supply. In 2018, China added about 6million tons of coking units, and the total capacity of coking units in China is expected to be about 138.05 million tons by the end of 2018. With the relaxation of China's crude oil import authority, China's crude oil processing yield continues to increase, while the coking unit yield continues to decline. Generally speaking, the demand and supply of petroleum coke are basically balanced

the fundamentals of the coal tar pitch market will not change in 2018, and the market supply will be sufficient, but the price will enlarge the fluctuation range

it is estimated that at the end of 2017, the inventory of calcined coke in the market was nearly 700000 tons, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased by about 750000 tons of pre baked anode compared with the same period in 2016. Under normal circumstances, the release of these two factors will reduce the demand for petroleum coke for aluminum carbon by about 500000 tons in 2018

with the end of the limited production in the heating season, the supply of coal tar pitch in 2018 will be sufficient, and the price will return rationally

5. 2018 aluminum anode price forecast

generally speaking, the beginning of 2018 will be a process of accumulation and release of market reversal momentum, and it is also a stage of changes in market expectations, and the rising trend of prices will stop. It was originally expected that the price trend would reverse in 2018. At present, it seems that the reversal time will be ahead of schedule

6. The situation of aluminum cathode industry in 2018

as the scale of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been reduced compared with previous years, the demand for aluminum cathode carbon blocks will be significantly reduced in 2018. At the same time, as the newly-built electrolytic aluminum production capacity in previous years has entered the overhaul period, the demand for cathode carbon blocks for electrolytic cell maintenance will increase. It is expected that the demand for cathode carbon blocks will decline in 2018, with a total demand of about 300000 tons

the price trend of cathode carbon blocks mainly depends on the changes in the prices of graphite chips and calcined coal. Compared with 2017, the kinetic energy of the price rise of these two raw materials will be weakened. On the whole, in 2018, the price of cathode carbon blocks will be high before and low after, but the change is relatively mild

7. Meeting the environmental protection requirements in 2018 is still the top priority for the development of the industry.

the tightening of environmental protection policies is the main factor for the rise in carbon prices for aluminum in 2017. It can be determined that the environmental protection policies in 2018 will only be strong. The first thing enterprises face is that the environmental protection tax law of the people's Republic of China has officially come into force since January 1, 2018, "the current pollution discharge fee has been changed to environmental tax". In accordance with the principle of statutory taxation, in order to avoid excessive local discretion, the upper limit of environmental protection tax is set, that is, the tax range of air pollutants is 1.2 yuan to 12 yuan per pollution equivalent, and the tax range of water pollutants is 1.4 yuan to 14 yuan per pollution equivalent. The determination and adjustment of the specific applicable tax amount shall be decided by all localities within the range of the statutory tax amount

it is understood that the specific applicable tax amount of taxable air pollutants in Shandong Province is: sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide 6 yuan/pollution equivalent, and other air pollutants 1.2 yuan/pollution equivalent. The applicable tax for taxable air pollutants in Hebei is 9.6 yuan/pollution equivalent. The applicable tax for taxable air pollutants in Henan is 4.8 yuan/pollution equivalent. The applicable tax amount of taxable air pollutants in other provinces and cities is 1.2 yuan/pollution equivalent in Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin and Shaanxi, 1.8 yuan/pollution equivalent in Guangxi, and 2.4 yuan/pollution equivalent in Guizhou and Chongqing

from the different tax amounts of environmental protection tax in various regions, the more intensive the pollution discharge enterprises are, the higher the tax will be